Consumers Plan Near-Record Holiday Spend; Local Media & Agencies Should Adjust Strategy

Read Time: 8 minutes

With holiday consumer spending intentions hovering at the second-highest level in the survey’s 23-year history, media buyers and local market ad agencies should dial in strategy accordingly—as both opportunity and caution signs bear watching.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights   Analytics, the average U.S. adult plans to spend $890.49 this season on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. That’s just 1.3 % off last year’s record figure of $901.99—and marks the second-highest spending intention in the survey’s 23-year span. National Retail Federation+1 The survey also finds that 85 % of consumers expect higher prices this season because of tariffs. Gifts Decorative Accessories+1
What this means for local and regional media/agency professionals: three big take-aways

1. Budget levels remain high — but price sensitivity is rising.
   • Of the total spend, $627.93 is earmarked for gifts for family and friends; the remaining ~$262.56 will go toward seasonal items such as food, greeting cards and décor. National Retail Federation
   • For agencies and media planners, this signals that while marketers should not assume a pull-back in budgets, creative and messaging must incorporate value, price consciousness and clear calls to action.
   • With 85 % of consumers anticipating price hikes (driven by trade-tariff worries), messages emphasizing deals, local-market relevancy and immediacy may outperform generic national campaigns. Gifts Decorative Accessories
   • The input parallels broader industry commentary: NRF’s 2025 annual forecast points to slower overall growth (2.7–3.7%) for retail sales amid “policy uncertainty.”
2. Timing and channel shifts are material — adapt campaign windows accordingly.
   • The survey shows that 42 % of shoppers plan to begin browsing or buying before November. But the majority (63%) plan to wait until the Thanksgiving weekend (up from 59% last year) to do the bulk of their holiday shopping; 60 % expect to finish in December. National Retail Federation+1
   • From a media-buying standpoint, that means local market campaigns should strike a balance: early efforts to capture browse-phase and awareness, followed by heavier up-weighting through the holiday run-up around Thanksgiving into December.
   • Channel data also show that online remains the top destination (55% say they plan digital purchase), followed by grocery (46%), department stores (44%) and discount stores (42%). National Retail Federation
   • For regional stations, digital platforms and mobile targeting must be baked in alongside traditional buys.
   • For agencies, this underlines the importance of synchronized cross-channel buys: local digital, streaming, in-store geo-targeting, and out-of-home around key festive shopping hubs.
3. Gift preferences offer creative targeting clues for local advertisers.
   • The top gifts consumers would like to receive: gift cards (50%), clothing or accessories (46%), books/media (27%), personal care/beauty (23%) and electronics (22%). National Retail Federation
   • For media reps servicing local retail advertisers, apparel and accessories remain strong focal categories—especially in markets where local boutiques, malls or regional chains are active. Gift cards are also high-visibility: consider campaigns tying local-merchant gift-card offers with digital or broadcast spots that drive regional foot-traffic.
   • Even consumer celebration behaviors matter: 91% of U.S. adults plan to observe winter holidays (Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa) this year, holding tradition steady. National Retail Federation

Local-market nuance: what ad agencies and media reps should ask now

• Have we mapped local price sentiment? Given high tariff/price-increase awareness, can we tailor spots with local price-value messaging or regional deal tie-ins?
• Are we front-loading campaigns in the right windows? With browsing activity starting early and major shopping still clustered around Thanksgiving weekend, our buys should pace accordingly.
• Are we optimizing digital/mobile as core pillars—not just add-ons? With 55 % of consumers planning online purchases, local advertisers need meaningful digital investment (search, social, mobile display, streaming). Brandience+1
• Are we coordinating with local stores and offers (gift card promotions, accessory specials) to align creative, air-time and in-store calls to action?
• For local brands: can we lean into “local” and “experience” storytelling? In an era of value-conscious consumers, local connection can be a differentiator.

Additional context: macro forces influencing the holiday window

• The NRF expects 2025 retail sales growth between 2.7 % and 3.7 % to between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion — still positive, but weaker than recent years. National Retail Federation
• Rising tariffs, inflation, and policy uncertainty are cited by NRF and other sources as meaningful headwinds. Retail Dive+1
• And although consumers intend to spend at near-record levels, they are shifting behavior: several studies (including McKinsey Company) show the emphasis moving toward value, earlier deals, and less discretionary spend. McKinsey Company

What this means for local-market media strategy

• Inventory and scheduling: Local media sellers should highlight longer-lead and sustained-run options that span from early season to main shopping windows. The “late-burst” purchase behavior (Thanksgiving weekend through December) means schedule density should increase in that bloc.
• Offers creative hooks centered on local value: Consumers know pricing pressure is real. Ad campaigns that speak to “local specials”, “exclusive in our region”, “holiday-weekend deals” will resonate more than generic “holiday magic” copies.
• Cross-platform bundles for regional buy-ins: A typical local advertiser might pair broadcast (or local cable) with digital remarketing, mobile geo-targeting (near the mall or shopping district) and OOH (billboards near high-traffic retail corridors).
• Early awareness + last-minute urgency: Because 42% start before November and yet 63% plan the bulk near Thanksgiving, campaigns need a dual-phased approach: (1) “start the holiday early” awareness, (2) “get it now/weekend specials” urgency push.
• Gift-category alignments by advertiser vertical: If your local advertiser is an apparel boutique, focus creatives on “what they really want: clothing accessories (46%)”. For gift-card-heavy local chains—drive messaging around gift-card value.
• Tracking measurement: local nuances matter: Use region-specific purchase and foot-traffic data, tie digital to in-store via geo attributes, and report metrics by campaign phase (pre-November vs. Thanksgiving-December) to optimize mid-stream.

Bottom line
While overall holiday spending intentions remain elevated, the competitive edge in local markets will go to media plans and creative execution that reflect value, timing and regional relevance. For media sellers and agencies in local markets, the survey underscores the need for integrated, digitally savvy and locally anchored campaigns.
Source: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/consumers-to-spend-second-highest-amount-on-record-according-to-nrf-holiday-survey

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