Holiday Sales 2025: Retailers Told to "Go Big" as Consumers Weigh Value and Experience

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The coming holiday season will not be a record-breaker—but it may still be a decisive one.

Retail sales in the U.S. are forecast to grow 4% in November and December, topping $975 billion, according to Bain Company’s annual holiday outlook. That is a healthy number by most standards but falls below the 10-year average of 5.2%, underscoring consumer caution at a time of rising wages, stubborn debt, and economic uncertainty.

For local media sales reps and ad agency professionals, the message is both sobering and promising: the pie is still expanding, but retailers who want more than a modest slice must lean into bold promotional strategies and integrated campaigns. Bain’s guidance is blunt—“Go big” with sales events.

The Macro Picture: A Healthy, But Hesitant Consumer
Bain’s Consumer Health Index paints a mixed picture. Households across income groups reported worsening financial outlooks in August. Severe credit delinquencies are up 3% year over year, the highest since 2011, especially among borrowers under 30. Savings rates remain low, and labor force participation slipped 0.4 points compared with last year.

Yet there are tailwinds. Average hourly wages rose 3.7% in August, outpacing inflation (3.1%). The S P 500 is up more than 20% year-over-year, boosting the confidence of higher-income households that account for more than half of U.S. spending. And whispers of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could add fuel to consumer sentiment as the holiday calendar unfolds.
For retailers, this paradox means consumers are neither shutting their wallets nor throwing them open. They are calculated spenders—looking for value, gravitating to experiences, and still responsive to big shopping moments.

Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Power of the “Event”
Bain notes that 10% more consumers plan to shop on Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year. These days remain cultural tentpoles of the retail calendar, even as online shopping disperses spending across the season.

“Consumers are cautious and facing financial pressure, but they are also feeling the lift from higher wages and a strong stock market,” said Aaron Cheris, partner in Bain’s retail practice. “Leading retailers will strike the right balance—leaning into value, creating warm human experiences, and meeting customers with timely, personalized outreach.”

For local media reps, that translates into a clear opportunity: help clients think in terms of moments, not months. A single well-orchestrated sales event, promoted with multi-channel media, can outweigh a slow drip of unfocused holiday messaging.

Channel Shifts: In-Store Gains, E-Commerce Slows
Bain forecasts that in-store sales will grow 2.75% year-over-year, adding 2 percentage points to overall growth. Shoppers are returning to malls and main streets, particularly for clothing, accessories, general merchandise, and health and personal care. Those categories are poised for growth above 5%.

By contrast, electronics, appliances, furniture, and garden categories may decline—an echo of pandemic-era over-buying and the cooling housing market.

E-commerce, while still strong, is slowing. Non-store sales (including online and mail order) are expected to grow 7%, down from the 9–10% annual pace of the last two years. Still, non-store will represent half of all holiday sales growth.
For local agencies, that means a dual imperative: digital campaigns remain essential, but in-store traffic is resurging. Successful retailers will weave both together—using digital ads to push shoppers into stores while reinforcing brand value online.

Bain’s Four Prescriptions for Outperformance
Bain lays out four strategies for retailers to separate themselves from the pack:

1. Go Big on Sales Events
   • Black Friday and Cyber Monday are back in style. Retailers should concentrate energy and media budgets on making these events pop, with doorbusters, flash sales, and extended hours.
2. Lead with Key Value Items and Stress Value
   • With 55% of shoppers saying high prices will affect budgets, “value” is the magic word. This doesn’t always mean discounts—it can mean bundles, loyalty perks, or highlighting durability and quality.
3. Keep Experiences Human, Even with AI
   • In-store staff are critical to converting browsers into buyers. Technology can assist—AI chatbots, mobile checkout, inventory apps—but warmth and empathy close the sale.
4. Use Timely, Personalized Ads
   • Thirty percent more consumers are open to sponsored ads this year. Retailers should seize this with targeted campaigns that reach buyers at the right time with the right message.

What This Means for Local Media Sales Reps
For media sellers in TV, radio, print, digital, and outdoor, Bain’s forecast is a blueprint for selling urgency.

• Pitch the power of local tentpoles. Suggest campaigns around not just national shopping days, but also regional traditions—holiday parades, local sports games, or community charity drives. These can act as mini-“events” to spur traffic.
• Bundle traditional and digital. With in-store shopping rebounding, local media can create urgency and presence, while digital display and social ads drive measurable clicks.
• Position value-messaging as storytelling. Local retailers often default to price cuts. Encourage them to tell stories of quality, craftsmanship, or local ownership, which resonate with cautious consumers.
• Lean into first-party data. Many local media companies now have audience targeting capabilities. Show clients how you can match their promotions to consumer segments—e.g., health and personal care buyers, gift givers with children, or young professionals seeking deals.

Headwinds for Media Sellers
While the Bain outlook provides a roadmap, local media sales teams face their own hurdles:

• Budget compression. Many retailers, especially independents, feel squeezed and may resist ad spend. Reps must counter by showing return on investment.
• Digital competition. Meta, Google, and Amazon dominate e-commerce advertising. Local media must emphasize trusted relationships and regional reach.
• Long sales cycles. As with the Atlanta TV station case earlier this year, closing deals can take months. Holiday timing requires accelerating the process with fast, persuasive proposals.

The Role of Agencies: Orchestrators of Value
Local ad agencies can play an outsized role in guiding retailers this season. By combining Bain’s four strategies with channel expertise, agencies can help clients avoid “spray and pray” advertising.

• Creative storytelling. Agencies can frame value around lifestyle, not just discounts.
• Integrated media plans. A single campaign can touch shoppers via CTV, digital radio, print inserts, and TikTok videos.
• Data-driven retargeting. With 30% more consumers open to sponsored ads, agencies can sharpen the edge of every dollar spent.

Agencies that master this orchestration will not only win holiday results but also cement year-round client loyalty.

Looking Beyond December: Why This Season Matters
Holiday sales are not just about Q4 revenue. For many retailers, they shape the next year’s budget, inventory, and marketing appetite. A successful holiday campaign can:

• Establish a retailer as the local “go-to” for value.
• Build loyalty programs that generate repeat visits in January and February.
• Strengthen relationships with media partners for ongoing campaigns.

For media reps and agencies, helping clients “win” the holidays is an investment in 2026 pipelines.

The Bottom Line
This holiday season is shaping up as a paradox: modest growth overall, but huge potential for those who move boldly. Consumers are cautious yet willing. Retailers are under pressure yet empowered by data, wages, and market gains.

For local market media sellers and agency professionals, the Bain outlook is not just an economic forecast—it’s a call to action. The winners will be those who:

• Urge clients to go big on events.
• Align messaging around value and humanity.
• Blend in-store resurgence with online targeting.
• Deliver campaigns that are both timely and personal.

The message is clear: while national headlines debate GDP and inflation, the real battle for holiday dollars will be fought on Main Street, in suburban malls, and in the palms of consumers scrolling through sponsored ads.

This is the season for local media reps and agencies to prove their worth—not by selling space or time, but by helping retailers turn cautious consumers into confident buyers.

Source: https://chainstoreage.com/bain-us-holiday-sales-grow-4-outperform-retailers-should

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