Holiday Shopping Surge Signals Banner Season for Local Advertisers

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Record 186.9 million consumers expected to shop Thanksgiving weekend, presenting unprecedented opportunities for media sales professionals

WASHINGTON—A record 186.9 million Americans plan to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to survey data released Monday by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights Analytics, signaling robust advertising demand heading into the industry's most critical period.

The figure—up 3.5 million shoppers from last year's previous record—underscores the heightened stakes for media sales representatives and advertising agencies as retailers compete for consumer attention during a compressed shopping window. With holiday spending forecast to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, the data points to intensified competition for ad inventory across all platforms.

"The holidays are an important part of many consumers' budgets, and that trend is especially true this season," said Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, noting retailers are positioning themselves to capture share through promotional campaigns emphasizing value and convenience.

Black Friday Dominates, But Multi-Day Strategies Essential
For media planners and local sales teams, the consumer behavior data reveals critical insights for campaign timing and creative strategy. While 70% of shoppers (130.4 million) will hit stores and websites on Black Friday—making it the peak advertising day—40% plan to shop Cyber Monday, and 36% expect to shop Saturday, with 80% of those specifically seeking to support local businesses.

The Saturday shopping surge presents particular opportunities for local media outlets and community-focused advertisers. Small Business Saturday, a decade-old initiative, has evolved into a significant revenue driver requiring dedicated promotional support.

"Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts," said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President of Strategy at Prosper Insights Analytics. Over half of deal-seeking consumers cited promotions as "too good to pass up," suggesting price-and-item advertising remains highly effective.

Early Shopping Trends Compress Campaign Windows
The survey data carries implications for ad campaign scheduling: 58% of consumers had already begun holiday shopping by early November, with shoppers completing roughly one-quarter of planned purchases before Thanksgiving. This accelerated timeline necessitates earlier ad flights and October campaign launches—a shift from traditional post-Thanksgiving advertising strategies.
Gift card spending—projected to reach $29.1 billion—represents a specific category ripe for targeted campaigns. Consumers plan to purchase three to four cards at an average $171.32 per person, with restaurants (27%), bank-issued cards (25%), department stores (25%) and coffee shops (20%) leading preferences.

Digital Payment Growth Drives Online Ad Investment
Payment method preferences signal continued growth in digital advertising opportunities: 59% of consumers plan to use digital wallets and apps, while debit cards (44%) and credit cards (37%) remain primary payment vehicles. The data suggests mobile-optimized campaigns and digital wallet integrations should feature prominently in holiday advertising strategies.

Inspiration sources offer targeting guidance for media buyers: online search (41%), friend and family recommendations (35%), in-store browsing (28%) and wish lists (23%) top the list. The data validates continued investment in search engine marketing, influencer partnerships and geo-targeted mobile advertising.

Cause Marketing Presents Differentiation Opportunity
Two-thirds of shoppers plan charitable activities, with 20% specifically seeking retailers supporting social causes—a trend agencies can leverage through cause-marketing campaigns and values-based messaging for clients seeking brand differentiation.

The survey of 8,000 adult consumers, conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 6 with a 1.1 percentage point margin of error, arrives as retailers finalize media budgets for the season. NRF's forecast projects holiday sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024, translating to total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion across November and December.

For local media sales teams, the record shopping projections suggest heightened advertiser demand across broadcast, digital, out-of-home and print channels. Agencies advising retail clients should emphasize multi-platform strategies spanning the five-day weekend, with particular attention to local business campaigns on Saturday and digital/mobile executions throughout.

Source: National Retail Foundation